Even before our president JZ was safely ensconced as president some – like William Gumede – predicted that the coalition that was his Zunami was a motley crew. And that they would soon be at each other throats. Two articles Kameraad Mhambi read yesterday confirms this.
First thanks to a gentleman who tweets as AQUILOGY I found another piece by William Gumede, writer of Thabo Mbeki and the battle for the soul of the ANC. He opinions that Zuma can save the ANC and the country by choosing the side of the democrats above the “opportunists”, even if it costs him his job:
“The battle to oust Thabo Mbeki from ANC leadership brought ‘two diametrically opposed groups’ together in support of Jacob Zuma. Now though, President Zuma finds himself walking a ‘tight-rope’ between the opposing groups, with one side seeking genuine party reform in favour of the people, and the other simply wanting its own place at ‘the feeding trough’. Will Zuma take the side of democracy? That depends on whether he wants to secure another term for himself, or to ‘rescue’ the ANC’s ‘democratic legacy’.”
In another article by veteran journalist Alistair Sparks is also smelling blood.
“Aluta continua. The struggle continues. The power struggle to gain control of the ANC, that is. Anyone who thought that contest had ended with the removal of former President Thabo Mbeki last year will surely have been disabused by Cosatu’s declaration of war last week against the Minister of Planning in the Presidency, Trevor Manuel , and other perceived members of “the 1996 class project” — code language for all who supported the Mbeki-sponsored Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) policy.”
Where Gumede sees democrats (he also calls them left) and opportunists, Sparks sees the 96 class project (the right), vs the socialist left.
Perhaps these gents can put notes together and come up with a coherent analysis. I think both are right. To Gumede I say, the left is full of both democrats and potential Stalinists and perhaps a couple of opportunists as well.
To Sparks I say, don’t under-estimate the influence of the so-called opportunists, and grass roots left opposition to them.
But this little bit I find interesting in Spark’s analysis. The rise of president Zwelinzima Vavi.
“Now Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi has raised the conflict another notch by announcing that he will not stand for re-election at the union federation’s next national conference in 2012, but will be available to take a senior position in the ANC at its national conference the same year.
What position? He has assured Gwede Mantashe, whom he regards as an ally, that he doesn’t want his job as secretary general, nor does he want to be in the Cabinet. Just to be one of the 85 members of the ANC’s national executive committee will surely not be enough. He must be aiming for one of the top six posts. Excluding Mantashe’s and Zuma’s, that means one of four may be in his sights. Could it be that our Zweli is planning to challenge deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe and that he will step down in time to run a repeat of the campaign that led to the Polokwane putsch?
Success would be a coup for the left. It would give Vavi immense power over ANC policy formulation and implementation. Clearly there would be no room for Manuel and his “running dogs” in such a set-up.
It would also put Vavi in pole position to become the next president of the party and the country when Zuma steps down at the end of his second term in 2019. Or maybe sooner if Zuma can be pressured into honouring an earlier pledge to serve only one term.”
Far fetched? I just witnessed – on Twitter – a bet between Trevor Ncube (owner of the Mail & Guardian) and Anton Harber – its erstwhile editor – on the likelihood of Vavi becoming president. The prize? A bottle of Whiskey.
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